Strategy, Approach and Statistics

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Monday, February 13, 2012

Guestimates aren't Working

It was interesting to read a number of different views of market pundits over the weekend. It was evident through the fact that TLT rose along with broader market. Typically, TLT and QQQ/SPY have inverse correlation. Predictions begin to diverge though still most traders have an upward bias. 

Market bears caught up on the wrong side will be forced to roll over in the current options' expiration week. The week should have limited downside, if any. 

Market may drift lower beginning succeeding week. On that hypothesis, I initiated few conservative bearish calls for the following month. Another 2% rise shouldn't sweat us. TLT and QQQ inverse relationship should keep the portfolio in balance.

IR looks like a perfect short. It is extremely overbought, but an upgrade kept me away from this stock.

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