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Saturday, January 21, 2012

Balanced Positions - DOW to Hit Resistance at 12750

Options' expiration week wrapped up in a typical style. S&P closed at resistance, and DOW is shy of resistance around 12750. Mighty IBM and Microsoft were the DOW leaders today.

VIX closed at 18.23, near the annual low.

Entering into next week, our portfolio is balanced with two calls (SPY), two puts (VIX and FXI) and one position in a gold-related  stock. If VIX is an indicator of fear, then it seems bulls are in control, but the market will not gain or drop significantly. Calendar alerts with weekly leg will do well, next week, as long as market stay within -3% to +1%. As such, I do not trust the options' expiration week, so a churn in the market is not ruled out.

Many global ETFs are overbought. A correction in the market will be healthy allowing other investors to get in. It will be interesting to watch gold and heavily shorted stocks if supports go broke.

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