Strategy, Approach and Statistics

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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Advising caution

Do you think the market will continue to go higher after breaking the upper resistance at 1285?

My guess is yes, but not until a small correction kicks-in. 

If the market holds tomorrow, then probably we will see S&P at 1315 in a short term. As such, I'd still play on both short and long sides. When CNBC pundits predict directional move, retailers usually come in at the tail end of the move and in fact, lose money. It seems that we are at a tail-end of the directional move, at least for the next 5-day period. 

Commodities and banks will under perform if there is a mild market correction. Consider weekly credit premiums (call side) above SPY 131. 5-10% gain within three days will be juicy. Global markets will be flat to negative tomorrow.

Our open positions look good in spite of about 14 points rally in Nifty over the last two days.



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